US Billionaires Unite to “Make America Great Again”: Why the US is Headed for a Deep Recession (Second Instalment)
Part II of ‘Make Whose America Great Again?’ Series
Part I discusses the story of America’s deindustrialisation, which began in the 1960s. In the following decades the United States became increasingly a services economy which included the financialization of debt, that now makes up a large portion of US revenue. Today the American economy largely consists of revenue from casino (i.e. Wall Street) and landlord profits, such as Blackstone the largest commercial landlord in the world. Blackstone made a killing off of the housing bubble bust during the 2008 financial crisis and is a big reason why Americans can no longer afford to purchase a house of their own. Part I also goes through the real reason why the reciprocal tariffs were paused only one week after they were announced.
In Part II we will do an overview of what US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick have set forth in their promise to Americans to bring back jobs, with a focus on manufacturing jobs. And to rebuild industry, especially in advanced technologies.
We will also discuss the outcome thus far in Bessent’s global tariff strategy as well as how the US tariff war is fairing in its face-off with China.
Also make sure to check out Part III of this series:
Wall Street vs Main Street
Before we get into the nitty-gritty of the policies of the new administration, I would like to do a brief overview of the state of affairs presently in terms of Americans’ livelihood. This will also allow us to appreciate how much room or lack of room we have, if we were to face a deeper recession in the near future.
In America today, there are over 22 million people who are making less than $15/hour and nearly 40 million people who are earning less than $17/hour. The federal minimum wage has not been raised since 2009 and remains $7.25/hour.
There are 20 out of the total 50 states who are still at the bare minimum wage of $7.25/hour.
Here is a list of all the times the federal minimum wage was increased from 1978 to 2009 (if you want to look at the full list that started in 1938 you can access it here at the US Department of Labor website).
The US dollar has had an average inflation rate of 2.53% per year between 2009 and today, producing a cumulative price increase of 49.06%. This means that today’s prices are 1.49 times as high as average prices since 2009, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics consumer price index. This means that $100 in 2009 is equivalent to $149.06 today.
And in just four years (Jan. 2021- Jan. 2025) inflation on food prices has increased by 21%. This means that $100 in 2021 is now equivalent to $121.00 today. This is a big decrease in purchasing power because it is the prices of goods that are increasing by this much, not the wage. Minimum wage is not increasing based on the inflation rate. Thus, inflation means everything gets more expensive for the US consumer, especially for those in the lowest income bracket.
Most Americans who are earning low-income wages shop at Walmart for what are supposed to be among the lower price bracket. So this is very telling about the decline in living standard that is occurring within the country at an incredible pace.
In addition, companies like Walmart who received staggering tax breaks from Trump’s new tax reform have failed to lower prices. This begs the question, if these massive companies who provide essential services to the public, receive massive tax breaks and do not lower their prices, how is this benefiting the average American? In addition, the tax breaks mean revenue to pay off the US debt will have to come from somewhere else, we will talk about who will ultimately foot the bill for these massive corporate tax cuts.
The Kobeissi Letter writes:
“US credit card defaults have jumped to $46 billion in the first 9 months of 2024, the highest since 2010. Credit card defaults are now up over 50% year-over-year. Defaults on seriously delinquent credit card loan balances have more than doubled over the last 2 years.
Bottom income consumers were hit the hardest due to years of elevated inflation and interest rates. Additionally, the savings rate of the bottom third is now 0%, according to Moody’s.
The credit card bubble is popping.”
Delinquency for a credit card loan means you are late in your payments (even by one day) or miss a regular installment of payment or payments. A credit card loan goes into default when the borrower fails to keep up with ongoing loan obligations or doesn’t repay the loan according to the terms laid out.
I should add here that the spike in credit card defaults in 2010 was from the 2008 financial crisis.
According to Fortune’s article “Americans are increasingly falling behind on their credit card bills, flashing a warning sign for the economy”:
“In the 12 months that ended in September [2024], consumers who didn’t fully pay off their monthly credit card bills paid $170 billion in interest, according to the FT. Consumers may not see much relief soon.”
For US consumers who didn’t fully pay off their credit card bills, congratulations you have just made Wall Street richer.
In other words, US credit card interest payments to Wall Street came to a staggering $170 billion in just 12 months, from September 2023 to September 2024. This is insane. And guess what, rates are not looking like they will be dropping any time soon. However, survival from now till then isn’t guaranteed.
The reason why we are seeing a higher default in credit cards is because of increasing inflation as well as high credit card interest rates. For those proportion of Americans who are increasingly unable to keep a decent living standard as prices get higher, they are forced to go into credit card debt to pay for groceries, or their utilities bill. This debt then charges exorbitant interest rates of 20-25% trapping Americans into losing even more of their salary and making it harder to pay off the debt. In addition, people are swiping their credit cards more today than during the 2020 lockdowns. We are near the desperation level just after the 2008 housing collapse.
Many Americans cannot afford to default, this is really a sign of a desperate situation for the most part, because once you default your credit rating is ruined. This means you will likely either be refused a credit card from another bank or you will be charged even higher interest rates since the risk of you defaulting is high. So you lose even more of your salary to even higher interest rates.
We can see from this pattern that those who are low-income wage earners are hit from multiple angles to lose more and more of their salary to inflation and interest payments.
35% of the average American paycheque goes to debt and that includes your mortgage and car payments. Recall that the savings rate for the bottom third of Americans is 0%. That is approximately 114 million people.
CNBC writes in their article “Many Americans are still living paycheck to paycheck”:
“Around 35% of households earning less than $50,000 per year are living paycheck to paycheck, up from 32% in 2019.”
An increasing number of Americans today cannot afford to own their car fully, they are either on a monthly payment plan or are paying a rental fee. However, a growing number of Americans cannot even afford a monthly payment plan at this point.
Granted there is an increasing risk to lenders during a time when defaults are rising. Credit lenders wrote off an incredible $46 billion in delinquent loan balances in the first nine months of 2024. This is up by 50% in the same period the year before, so people are poorer today than in 2023. And this is the effect of higher inflation plus higher interest rates ravaging the economy. But recall, there was still a total payment of $172 billion over 2024 to Wall Street on just the interest on credit cards, so profits are still extremely high for lenders.
The point in all of this is the undeniable fact that an increasing number of Americans, 35% and rising, cannot afford their present living costs and something will have to give. The Titanic is sinking and there are only so many life jackets to go around.
Below is a map on the percentage of housing that is affordable within the United States. For example, the state of California has a 33% home affordability. What that means is that 33% of houses listed for purchase are listed at what is considered an affordable price for those living in that state. We can see affordability rates as low as 23% in Wyoming, 25% in Oregon, 21% in Connecticut, 29% in Washington DC. And the states with the highest affordability rates only scored in the 40% range, except for just three states who scored higher than 50%: Virginia at 54%, Maryland at 57% and Delaware at 69%.
One reason for this lack of affordability is Blackstone, who has been investing for many years in buying up infrastructure and is the world’s largest commercial landlord.
The Guardian writes in their article “The Blackstone rebellion: how one country took on the world’s biggest commercial landlord”:
“Blackstone is the largest commercial landlord in history. Over the past two decades, it has quietly taken control of apartment blocks, care homes, student housing, railway arches, film studios, offices, hotels, logistics warehouses and datacentres. Blackstone doesn’t just own real estate, it owns everything – or that’s how it can feel when you start to examine its bewildering array of assets.
…. Last year, the company invested $270bn, bringing the total value of the assets it manages to $881bn, slightly more than the gross domestic product of Switzerland, and more than twice that of Denmark… Blackstone is an asset manager, a type of private financial firm that invests the wealth of pension funds and insurance companies. It is not to be confused with BlackRock, an asset management firm founded by Larry Fink, who worked for Blackstone in the 1980s and set up its bond-investment business. In 1994, BlackRock became an independent firm and Blackstone sold its shares in the company. Fink and Schwarzman now work on opposite sides of Park Avenue. Fink’s company dwarfs Blackstone, but when it comes to property, Blackstone is the giant. Its $320bn real estate portfolio is more than six times larger than that of BlackRock. ‘For Blackstone, real estate is the goose that lays the golden egg’.
… But it is Blackstone’s interest in another type of real estate that has attracted the most scrutiny. In recent years, it has become known for creating a profitable asset class from residential properties – in other words, buying up homes.
… The company has acquired houses and apartments at a voracious speed in cities around the world. Like any company, Blackstone is focused on creating returns for its investors [the billionaire class that is]. Residents in some Blackstone properties have accused it of raising rents while reducing overheads, and the company has even been blamed – by an adviser to the United Nations – of helping to fuel the global housing crisis...”
In the New York Post article “Blackstone Sees Green from Subprime Loan$” published July 25, 2008 in the middle of the housing bubble bust:
“Homeowners having trouble making their mortgage payments may soon find themselves working out a payment plan with buyout kingpin Steve Schwarzman.
Schwarzman’s private equity firm, The Blackstone Group, recently announced it is prepping to make bets in the toxic subprime market.
And now, The Post has learned, it has set aside $1.25B to do this through a partnership with Florida firm Bayview Financial.
The plan is to use Bayview’s mortgage servicing arm to locate troubled loans on the cheap, including those where payments have stopped.
Once Bayview locates a loan, it will renegotiate the terms as needed, such as to get laggard payments back on track. [In other words, they are loan sharks]
Blackstone can then turn around and resell or ‘securitize’ the loans for a profit. Blackstone also has the option to take hold of properties when mortgages default.
… Also drooling over the downtrodden residential-mortgage market are hedge funds Fortress and Och-Ziff, as well as traditional asset manager BlackRock.”
In the case of Fort Worth, Texas, 26% of single-family homes are now commercially owned. What that means is that property buyers will be, or already are, priced out of the homebuying market.
It is literally the plan of “you will own nothing and be happy” agenda so blatantly laid out by the World Economic Forum because even though they know that will outrage the greater majority of people – they consider you irrelevant.
So increasingly, even people who can theoretically afford to own a home are being squeezed out by massive buyouts by commercial interests. Increasingly overtime, there will no longer be any homeowners, only renters according to this trend.
And I would gather that this phenomenon in Fort Worth is not a coincidence. Within Fort Worth is the billionaire Walton clan who are the world’s richest family.
Culture Map writes in their article “Fort Worth billionaire and family reign as the world’s richest clan”:
“In once again crowning the Waltons the world’s richest family, the Bloomberg news service recently reported [in 2021] that their collective fortune had risen by $23 billion in the past year due to the climbing stock price of the Walmart retail chain. Sam Walton opened the first Walmart store in 1962.
Descendants of Sam and his brother, Bud, control more than 1.3 billion shares of Walmart stock either directly or through family trusts, Bloomberg says. Even though the Waltons have liquidated $6 billion in Walmart stock this year, they’re now worth more in 2021 than they were in 2020.
As of mid-September, the Waltons were worth $238.2 billion, according to Bloomberg. That’s almost $100 billion above the next richest family in the world, the Mars family of candy and pet care fame. Last year, Bloomberg pegged the Waltons’ fortune at $215 billion.
To put the Waltons’ one-year, $23 billion bump in wealth into perspective, Bloomberg estimates the net worth of Walmart heir Lukas Walton at $22 billion.
Alice Walton ranks as the second richest person in Texas (No. 1 is Elon Musk, at more than $200 billion), but she’s not the richest Walmart heir. As of September 27, Bloomberg estimated Walton’s net worth at $61.9 billion, making her the 19th richest person in the world. Ahead of her are brothers Jim ($63.7 billion, No. 17 worldwide) and Rob ($63.3 billion, No. 18 worldwide).”
Private Equity Stakeholder Project (PESP) and Alliance of Californians for Community Empowerment (ACCE) released a report in March 2023, titled “Blackstone Comes to Collect: How America’s Largest Landlord and Wall Street’s Highest Paid CEO [Schwarzman] Are Jacking Up Rents and Ramping Up Evictions.”
On their website they write:
“The report highlights San Diego County, where private equity firm Blackstone purchased 5,600 naturally occurring affordable housing units in 2021 and how, as units become vacant, the company has raised rents in some units between 43-64% in just 2 years, (AB 1482 pegs annual raises above 10%, for existing tenants, as price gouging).
As San Diego becomes increasingly unaffordable, throwing more families into homelessness, Blackstone’s aggressiveness as the third largest landlord in the area in hiking up rents for its thousands of units only adds to the problem…By jacking up the price of their units Blackstone is rapidly dwindling the number of affordable housing units in the area – exacerbating an already dire affordable housing shortage.
Key Points from the Report:
- Blackstone owns and manages over 300,000 units of rental housing in the U.S., making it the largest landlord in the U.S.
- In the last two years, Blackstone has been on an aggressive buying spree, expanding its residential real estate empire by snapping up various single-family and multi-family rental properties, adding over 200,000 housing units to its portfolio.
- Until August 2022, Blackstone had a voluntary eviction moratorium for tenants who were behind on rent. Since then, Blackstone has initiated a wave of evictions in a number of states and counties documented in this report. For instance, Blackstone filed over 350 evictions in Florida between August and November 2022.
- If this trend was present at all of its properties, then it means that Blackstone would have filed to evict thousands of tenants in the last six months of 2022 alone.
…
- Blackstone also spent millions of dollars fighting against rent control in California. Blackstone gave over $7 million in 2018 and more than $7 million in 2020 to oppose statewide ballot initiatives that would have limited rent increases.
But it gets even worse.
ProPublica writes in their article “This Doctors Group Is Owned by a Private Equity Firm and Repeatedly Sued the Poor Until We Called Them” how Blackstone Group has acquired one of the nation’s largest physician staffing firms in 2017 resulting in low-income patients facing far more aggressive debt collection lawsuits.
But it is not just Blackstone that is acting as a predatory private-equity firm buying up everything it can get its hands on.
Politico writes in their article “ ‘They Were Traumatized’: How a Private Equity-Associated Lender Helped Precipitate a Nursing-Home Implosion”:
“From 2015 until just a month before the near-collapse [in 2018], Atrium’s owners allegedly paid themselves more than $37 million, according to a federal grand jury indictment in the western district of Wisconsin against CEO Kevin Breslin and Atrium for Medicare and Medicaid fraud. That came after Atrium had borrowed money from a company called MidCap Financial, an affiliate of private equity giant Apollo Global Management which is headed by Marc Rowan. The MidCap money allowed Atrium to expand its nursing home empire from the Northeast to the Midwest. The loan also enabled Atrium’s owners to take money out of their business, even as bills for essentials went unpaid, putting Atrium on the path to ruin.”
Noticing a pattern here? Private-equity is not making things run more smoothly, rather these public institutions are sucked dry of money and put on a path of unsustainability followed by a collapse and bankruptcy while millions are made in profits that go into just a few hands. No repercussions. And they are free to move onto to their next target. There was never the intention to actually have the institution run smoothly and provide its intended services.
It reminds me of the Mergers and Acquisitions Wall Street piranhas who would buy up businesses and industries that were actually doing well and who were responsible for the employment of millions of Americans, and these Mergers and Acquisitions were infamous for breaking these companies up into parts that could be sold off for a profit, while they laid off all of its employees.
That was actually a big reason why the United States was heavily deindustrialised during the 1980s and on. There was no law in place to prevent this from happening. And so Wall Street was allowed to eat up the manufacturing industry. And now today, the process is only accelerating with private-equity firms, meanwhile, Americans are told it’s the world’s fault for why the nation was deindustrialised. “Fool me once…”
Scott Bessent has said that he plans to further privatize the US economy and deregulate the banks as part of his medicine for sick America. But I think the jury is no longer out on this, privatization is not making things run more smoothly or responsibly but rather is having the very opposite effect. People’s rights are being violated to a horrifying level, with increased evictions, exorbitant hikes in rent of up to 60% in two years, and criminal negligence and recklessness in the medical field. And the deregulation of the banks is what made catastrophes like the 2008 financial crisis possible, where Wall Street came out on top while those who paid were the American people.
In case you didn’t notice, private equity firms like Blackstone made their biggest profits during the 2008 crash and the 2020-21 lockdowns. These were periods of massive wealth transfer from the low and middle income earners to the multi-millionaire and billionaire class.
Something is telling me that a disaster is brewing in 2025. So, this is going to feed deeper into the class divide that is already occurring in the United States. However, never to miss a business opportunity, since let us remind ourselves that the bottom third of America’s population still amounts to 114 million people and thus there is still millions to be made off this impoverished sector. With credit card default rates sky-rocketing what do we see emerge through the cracks of the system? The new economic framework for the downtrodden who own nothing, the “Buy Now, Pay Later” new debt economy. Excited?!
Here's what US consumers had to say in a poll about the “Buy Now, Pay Later” experience.
I think we have a pretty good idea of how this new framework is going to suck people who are already struggling dry. With a growing number of Americans entering into the low income bracket, and round up into one gigantic pig pen within a debtor economy, we can see a point where desperation is going to reach a peak. And what will happen then? An entire overhaul of the system with a new framework will be announced, likely with a global vision (recall private equity firms like Blackstone are global), and it might just be Scott Bessent himself who will have the honor of making this very announcement to the American people.
After all, he is Wall Street’s “man.”
US Billionaires Unite to “Make America Great Again”
It is interesting that Trump keeps referring to the “unfair treatment” Americans have received in trade relations with the world. And thus, his justification for implementing tariffs onto the entire world (i.e. a tax on the world), including their closest allies, as a means of taking back revenue that has been, according to Trump, unfairly lost in global trade. However, it has been the United States all along who has led the invoking of tariffs on other countries.
The below graph is data from the years 2021 and 2022.
As already mentioned in Part I of this series, there is $9.2 trillion of US debt this year that will mature or need refinancing. That is about 25% of the total US debt that has come a knockin’ this year alone. It is clear that this tax on the world is a means of generating revenue to pay this off.
If the US defaults on this, you can basically kiss goodbye to the US dollar system as hegemon in global trade transactions. If this were to occur, the US would lose any power to sanction other countries. The world would effectively be able to trade as they please with other countries without incurring punishments or risk themselves being sanctioned by the US. In other words, the US is going to lose the big stick it has been using.
We will get into whether these tariffs will be useful or not in paying off this debt. Later in this series we will discuss Bessent’s vision for a world “re-balancing” which of course he sees America leading in. We will also discuss the consequences of these tariffs on other countries and more specifically Trump’s demand that they move key strategic industries to the United States. Because apparently that is also owed to the Americans???
On top of this the US Dollar as the world’s leading reserve currency is beginning to lose its global hold. In other words, the world is moving towards de-dollarization.
There are many reasons for this, one very notable one is that the US has been very liberal in its sanctioning of countries including Russia, Iran and Venezuela who are big resources for energy. Increasingly we see countries around the world using their own currencies to purchase from sanctioned countries. One big commodity in these trades is that of oil, to which Russia, Iran and Venezuela are all large producers of. In fact, Russia has been selling its oil in the Chinese currency, the yuan, ¥.
China as well has been trading more and more using their own currency and the dollar is no longer a part of a huge portion of global trade transactions. Over 50% of China’s cross border trade is in their local currency. And in the first 8 months of last year, payments increased by over 21%. The BRICS nations are increasingly avoiding the dollar in their transactions with each other and their trading partners. And Russia and China are now actively launching an alternative payment system to SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication).
This is the so-called “national security threat” from the BRICS nations that the United States has been ruffling its feathers over… That they dare trade amongst themselves freely. However, what did you expect? For countries to allow themselves to be contained in a cage and told what they can and cannot trade in for vital resources such as energy needs? In addition, sanctions have been used as an excuse for even going so far as to deny countries humanitarian aid, such as after the 2023 earthquake in Syria. Iran has also been denied access to crucial medicine for many years now.
Are we in the west truly thinking that we should have the right to determine such a fate for people in the world, and are surprised when they do not obey such orders?
As the US dollar loses its status as the world’s leading reserve currency, this also affects their ability to find investors to buy up their debt, in the form of treasury bonds and thus avoid defaulting on the massive $36 trillion and growing. You can see how dizzyingly fast this debt is expanding on the US Debt Clock.
This debt can either be paid through surplus revenue, that is the big sales pitch for Bessent’s global tariff strategy to Americans that has claimed will generate “revenue” - we will soon see if that is in fact true, cuts to bureaucratic inefficiencies executed by DOGE, and selling more US treasury bonds.
DOGE is already pretty much a failure at this point, seriously underperforming from the promise of $2 trillion in savings during the Trump campaign.
After less than four months, Elon Musk is walking away from DOGE to focus on his own company, Tesla, after a dramatic drop in its stocks.
When one considers that the 2025 military budget has risen to a record-breaking $1.035 trillion… That is to say, a nearly $150 billion increase from the 2024 defense budget- we see that the so-called “revenue” made by DOGE simply went straight into the military industrial complex.
Recall from Part I that the selling of many more US Treasury Bonds are key to not defaulting on the $9.2 trillion owed this year. In other words, that investors, especially foreign investors agree to buy this debt and hold it. However, this hot potato is becoming too hot to hold for very much longer.
Ideally, Scott Bessent would try to sell ten-year US treasury bonds to get out of paying back this massive debt owed this year and not have to think about it for a very long time. But after what occurred over this past March/April which was a bloodbath in the bond and stock markets, Bessent is fully aware that foreign investors are quickly losing faith that this Titanic can stay afloat much longer.
What this means is that buying US bonds, which used to be considered extremely low-risk, pretty much zero risk, are now considered very, very risky. This is very, very bad. Since the US economy, after decades of gutting their industry have become a financialized economy. In other words, Wall Street has been generating “revenue” through betting on things, it is a casino economy.
However, what was central to all of this working with the illusion of power and luster was the “faith” in the system, the belief in the US dollar. But the cracks in the ship are now clear for everyone to see. It isn’t going to stay afloat much longer.
So Bessent is in quite the pickle here. He needs to find a way to sell Treasury bonds so that investors will purchase a huge portion of this debt. But since these bonds have now lost their safe-haven status, there are very few investors who would want to buy long-term bonds, such as ten years or more, because they are just too risky now. This leaves the selling of short-term bonds as Bessent’s only option, which he has publicly stated is what he plans to do. This can be bonds for days, to weeks to months to one year. But this is literally like trying to take a small bucket and dump out water from the Titanic, hoping this is going to allow it to stay afloat. The amount for these T- bills will be small and they are short term. The US is in a position where they will have to constantly look for anyone to purchase the smallest amount of debt for the smallest amount of time.
In other words, it is a very desperate situation.
And it got a lot worse after the mayhem that occurred this past March/April (see Part I of this series). The world tariffs, that were supposed to generate revenue, had the very opposite effect in just the stock and bond markets alone. Many Americans lost their life savings during this mayhem. And we haven’t even gotten to the effect on the physical economy yet.
Foreign investors dumped a massive amount of US treasury bonds as a reaction to the world tariffs, which was made worse from the announcement of the reciprocal tariffs. It also didn’t help that there was a lot of flip-flopping from the Trump Administration and lack of clarity as to what these tariffs would be and for how long. Investors absolutely hate this sort of uncertainty, and they are more likely to walk away from it and wipe their hands clean of the mess. It caused a massive loss in confidence in the US markets during a time when confidence was already extremely low from foreign investors who can simply take their money elsewhere.
This massive dumping of bonds, in turn, increased the treasury yield making them a riskier investment, which causes a further drop in investors purchasing these bonds. In other words, this happened at the absolute worse time, when bond purchases need to increase (massively) they have in fact decreased (massively) making the paying off of the US debt that much more challenging and the risk of default that much higher.
A higher yield also means the borrowing rate will be higher, i.e. interest rates (since the treasury yield is high). This means all interest rates across the board will be higher - including house mortgages, or businesses that need to borrow money to, for instance…rebuild manufacturing in the United States to “Make America Great Again”!
This in turn is going to have the effect of increasing the cost of rebuilding US manufacturing since there will need to be borrowing for this massive project that is going to cost hundreds of billions of dollars, and this borrowing is going to occur in an already high-interest rate environment which just got higher after the March/April mayhem.
Think about it, everyone knows that Day X is coming, the day the US will default on their debt. The US dollar’s hegemony is based off of the belief that that day the US defaults on their debt won’t be anytime soon. However, increasingly the world is thinking that day is very, very close by.
This begs the question, if the current US strategy is causing more countries and foreign investors to dump US bonds won’t that trigger a bigger explosion in US debt? Right now, the prevention of further loss in US Treasury bonds and the selling of more are essential for the US to have any hope of not defaulting this year. Many analysts think this is the real reason why there was a 90 day “pause” on the reciprocal tariffs. They could not afford to risk any more carnage in the stock and bond markets.
In goods alone the US has an incredible trade deficit of more than $1.3 trillion. The US imports a ton of goods from China, Mexico and Vietnam. The manufacturing base back home is almost non-existent. But because of this the world earns a ton of dollars from US importers. Well over a trillion is flowing out to foreign companies that make the goods that US consumers purchase. And what do people do with the dollar earnings? A big part of it comes back to US investments.
Investors in China, Mexico and Japan, then start buying up US assets, like stocks- as a result stock values continue to rise. The US trade deficit is a big reason why, for the last few decades, the US stock and bond markets have been flying up.
America will have to spend billions upon billions of dollars to build back US manufacturing – while simultaneously needing to raise TRILLIONS to pay off a massive debt this year. Even if Trump is successful in getting key industries to re-shore to the US, this is not as simple as moving a piece on the chessboard from one place to another. And for advanced technology factories you need an industrial ecosystem to build up your factories. You can’t just expect to build cutting edge facilities, literally in the middle of deserts, within a year or two.
In addition, these industries based in the US will now be facing greater costs in manufacturing - prices for supplies will be higher since they need to import many of their materials in because the US produces very little domestically at this point after over 60 years of deindustrialization in favor of a debtor economy.
In other words, most of these factories, especially advanced sector industries, are going to require supply chains from outside the United States. The US has not built up its own supply chain capability, so these manufacturers within the US will be hit with the tariffs on supplies they need to import to build and run their industry.
These were the original reciprocal tariffs planned for April 5, however due to the highly volatile nature of the tariff strategy it is impossible to foresee exactly what form they will ultimately take. At the moment, reciprocal tariffs are on a 90 day pause with the hope that the US will make deals with all these countries who will otherwise have their economies decimated if these reciprocal tariffs are re-activated.
We should understand here that Bessent’s tariffs on the world, especially the reciprocal tariffs (which are presently on “pause”) are a very serious threat. This was not some little bit of extra tax that was being enforced here. The Trump team made it clear that these tariffs were meant to be crippling such that countries all over the world would have no choice but to make a “deal” with the US.
Make no mistake here, these were blatant threats that were made to countries’ economies. They were going to be death blows for the greater majority if these tariffs went through.
As for these “deals” we have seen that they are a shakedown of each country in terms of what the US views they can “offer” to the US empire. If you have key strategic industry, the US wants it for their own now. If you are an economic competitor like Japan, the US wants you to step out of the race. If you are an exporter of resources such as oil, or critical minerals, the US would like you to sell this to them on the dirt cheap, and the list goes on.
On top of this, the US has put yet another condition on these “deals,” that all countries forego trade with China. The US, who can no longer compete with China, is trying to bully the entire world into not trading with it biggest competitor, through it weaponizing its US consumer market as a gun to the head of countries’ economies.
US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick when asked about whether the tariffs will in fact increase cost in manufacturing, and hence prices to the US consumer, he answered, “Not if you make it in the US.” That is not really true in the current situation. You can avoid the tariffs if you make everything within house, sure, however, the cost of production is higher in the US than for example China because the US is not as streamlined as China. That’s the whole point of the tariff, the US goods cannot compete price-wise with outside goods’ prices. So prices are going to be higher for the US consumer if they were to buy things made in America vs China.
And that is fine, in terms of rebuilding US industry, as long as the prices are not too exorbitant. This is part of the benefits of how a proper use of tariffs is applied. You tariff key sectors from other countries that you cannot compete with price wise, and thus reduce competition with them, such that your consumer base will support the build-up of these domestic sectors within your own country.
So prices were always going to increase for the US consumer, because that is the whole point of the tariff, to raise the competitor’s price for their competing product so you can be supported by the consumer base to build-up domestically. Nothing gets cheaper immediately in this scenario.
The problem here with what Lutnick is discussing is that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has put forward a strategy to tariff everything. Everything coming into the country now just got more expensive, not specific goods/materials. Everything. On top of this trade with China has seriously halted on key materials required for manufacturing that you cannot get elsewhere.
For example, you would like to compete in the manufacturing of cars. This is all fine and good. But you cannot also decide to put high tariffs on steel and aluminum simultaneously! Because the United States does not in fact produce enough steel and aluminum to meet all of its domestic demand, to which the car industry is just a fraction. So by putting high tariffs on steel and aluminum, which car industries have no choice but to import a portion of their demand, you are increasing costs dramatically for the production of these cars.
You may be thinking, well why don’t we just increase steel production? Yes, this is also a fine and good thing to do. However, it would take years to build up the capacity, which even then would not be able to meet the full domestic demand. Meanwhile, the cost of car manufacturing is sky-rocketing and making it less competive in the global markets. So it is not so simple as putting a tariff on everything and thinking this is going to bolster industry no matter what.
In other words, without a doubt, boosting industry is important and the United States should compete in car manufacturing and steel production on a global scale, however, this strategy will work to undermine industry since the components it needs will be made much more expensive without anywhere for them to turn for a cheaper alternative.
So now, US manufacturers who already had a higher cost of production (and thus were not competitive with global trade) now face ADDITIONAL costs for the materials they need to import to finish their products, which just got more expensive with the tariff strategy. So now US goods are a great deal more expensive, and we are talking about prices that many US consumers simply cannot afford.
This is the very opposite effect of what you would want with a proper application of tariffs. In this scenario, the prices of US goods are going to be so high that US consumers will not be able to afford them and these US goods cannot compete in the global consumer market either, so how are these US manufacturers going to earn their revenue? This is a losing strategy.
And that is what is now backfiring with the Bessent tariff strategy, making the mistake of using them as a weapon against other countries rather than from a protective measure to the benefit of the American economy.
Lutnick seems to think the tariff strategy will act as a motivator for the US to just begin building everything in-house since there is no other choice. But with what supplies? There are no complete supply chains in the US. You will need to import necessary materials that are not available in the US in order to build your manufacturing industry. There is no advanced industry presently that the US has a complete supply chain in. This won’t just manifest out of thin air! You can’t build supply chains overnight, it takes years. So, this plan is disastrously short-sighted.
Another indicator of short-sightedness from this tariff strategy was the pulling back on tariffs to high tech goods from China, only after a few days of their announcement. Apparently, whoever was in charge of calculating these tariffs didn’t factor in that China was in fact exporting high tech goods to the US that were not easily replaceable. Thus, effectively, the US consumer would no longer have access to these goods…notably laptops, smartphones and essential electronics for businesses if the tariffs were left in place.
However, when asked on the Face of the Nation about clarification about these exemptions, which were thought permanent, Lutnick said they were only temporary (about one month), contrary to what Trump had given the impression of, since according to Lutnick they would be incorporated into a separate tariff package against China. This left manufacturers and investors in a never-ending lurch as to how to go about managing their companies.
Lutnick has even talked about how these factories will be operated using automation and robotics but how are these advanced robots for assembly lines going to be manufactured? Even if the US knew how to build such robots, which I seriously doubt since the engineering of these are not shared publicly from the leaders in the field such as China, even if the US somehow knew how to build these - the greater majority of the materials required for such a thing would need to be imported. This goes for chip manufacturing as well. It is impossible to build these industries without using China’s supply chain.
The list below mentions just a few critical minerals to give us an idea of how important these are to US manufacturing, especially in advanced technologies, and which are almost entirely dependent on having access to China’s supply chain.
Note, a supply chain does not just mean where these minerals are geographically located, it also means who has the means to process and refine these minerals and metals. When we take into account both the geographical location of these critical minerals and metals plus who has the capability to process and refine them, it is China who comes out on top of these supply chains. And thus, China is the only one who has the capability to complete the circle of manufacturing.
Granted that this above graph is focusing solely on clean energy metals but it gives us a good idea of how China is the only country in the world right now that has the capability of processing and refining almost every critical mineral/metal you would need to build advanced technology industries.
This is why the United States now wants to build up its own capability to control its own supply chains, especially concerning chips/semiconductors. However, this is an endeavour that takes several years to accomplish. China did not build up this capability overnight. For the United States to build up its knowledge and know-how, let alone the actual building of these necessary processing and refining facilities is going to cost billions of dollars on just this alone. Not even factoring in the other billions of dollars needed to build up a manufacturing base, especially if you want to include high-tech robots for assembly lines. So this is a project that is going to take many years and hundreds of billions of dollars in spending before it is even up and running.
America’s return as an industrial leader in high-tech manufacturing is not so simple after decades of the very opposite. Recognise that this is not even discussing the education and training or R&D (research and development) that needs to also be incorporated for this process to go as quickly and efficiently as possible.
Despite the US’s never ending aggressive posturing against the Chinese government, China has incredibly given an allowance, until recently, for the US to purchase these key critical minerals that are essential for chip manufacturing as well as the manufacturing of military weapons. China has allowed this despite the trade war, beginning in July 2018, which has aggressively sought to cut China’s ability to participate in the chip manufacturing industry.
Here is a summary of the Trump teams’ “Art of the Deal” with China, and which to my knowledge has yet to sign a deal with any country thus far.
What has China done in response to this monkey circus?
The Chinese Embassy to the US posted this message on the same day.
11 defense companies have been put on a blacklist which means they can probably kiss goodbye to their Chinese supply chains.
China has made it very clear that it will not be the first to backdown in this face-off, they have gone all-in in this round and are betting that the United States needs them more than they need the US.
In response to the sound of crickets the White House has taken on bizarre messaging to the American people, who were given the impression that this was going to be a cake walk and are beginning to realise that things could get real serious for American jobs and consumer prices.
White House spokesperson Karoline Levitt had this to say as the White House’s stance on the matter:
“The President has made his position on China quite clear. Although I do have an additional statement that he just shared with me in the Oval Office. ‘The ball is in China’s court. China needs to make a deal with us. We don’t have to make a deal with them. There’s no difference between China and any other country except they are much larger. And China wants what we have, every country wants what we have, the American consumer. Or to put it in another way, they need our money’. So the President again has made it quite clear that he’s open to a deal with China, but China needs to make a deal with the United States of America.”
Getting past the asinine comment that there is no difference between China and any other nation except that they are much larger, is the White House so delusional that they think countries are going to be scrambling to make a deal with the US when it has shown itself at this desperate stage ready to point the gun at anyone’s head, and quite literally everyone’s head, in its frantic scrambling to stay afloat?
It is also not a show of strength when Trump keeps acting like he is having talks with the Chinese embassy, only to have the Chinese embassy clarify that there are no talks happening and that the US should stop spreading confusion.
So, it’s looking like China really doesn’t care about making a deal with the US and has spent the last several weeks further decoupling from the American economy. The split looks pretty final here and China, just like Japan, look like they have finally had enough of the dishonesty and bullying coming out of the White House over the last several years.
Incredibly, the United States did not put the critical minerals and metals they need from China on a tariff list because they are of course essential for the manufacturing of advanced technologies, including military technologies. However, what were they expecting? That they were going to start a full-out trade war with China and that China was going to continue to sell America these critical materials needed for advanced technology, including military weapons?!?
Or the fact that China is the second highest treasury bond holder in the world and are in the process of dumping these bonds. And can you blame them? Why would China want to fund America’s plan to contain them and cut them out of global trade in hopes of putting a leash on the growing Asian economies? Recall from Part I of this series, Japan and China are the two biggest holders of US debt. [Note: China is now third after dumping a bunch of treasury bonds these past months, UK is now second which has been buying up a bunch of US treasury bonds.]
According to Bessent, China is officially in recession, in fact, he believes that Beijing is on the verge of a collapse and that is despite the Chinese economy growing by 5% last year (a growth that didn’t rely on the country going further into debt to inflate that number, unlike the US’s 2.8% growth in 2024).
The US had to go into 6.4% GDP deficit, in order to boost the “real” GDP to 2.8%. In other words, for every $1 spent by the US, they made 50 cents in the year 2024. This is the “growth” of the US economy.
In Bessent’s US Senate confirmation hearing he stated:
“China is the most unbalanced, imbalanced country in the history of the world. They are in a severe recession/depression. They may have minus 4% disinflation. And they are attempting to export their way out of that as opposed to doing the much needed internal rebalance.”
Like becoming a Wall Street debtor economy Mr. Bessent?
This is a very weird statement from Bessent since in the next breath he admits that China still has a lot of money to build infrastructure. If an economy is collapsing they wouldn’t have any money for anything would they?
“China will build a hundred new coal plants this year. There is not a clean energy race. There is an energy race. China will build 10 nuclear plants this year. That is not solar. I am in favor of more nuclear plants.” Bessent stated.
In fact, China is one of the few countries in the world who are actively building new nuclear plants and are leading this by a large margin.
Notice in the above graph that the United States is still leading in number of nuclear plants, though the number is smaller today since they have been shutting them down. However, notice in the right column, that the United States is minus 11 nuclear reactors since 2011. In other words, the US, like most things industrial, is relying on past laurels that they have not bothered to even maintain. Notice that China has built 39 new nuclear reactors since 2011.
Notice in the above graph that the United States did not even make the list! In other words, they have no current plans to actually build new nuclear plants! Scott Bessent says he is for nuclear power but strangely acts like China is somehow a sick and unbalanced nation because it is actively building nuclear energy?!? The level of doublethink here is truly astounding.
Energy is at the core of determining a country’s social progress index. And unlike the situation the US faces, China is not going into debt to pay for this growing infrastructure.
As we can see with the above graph, China now relies on the EU and ASEAN countries for more than half of its total trade. And its trade with the ASEAN countries is expected to increase exponentially since these countries are quickly entering into “first world” economic status. They also house more than half of the world’s population so there is a huge consumer market here, and in the near future will surpass the US consumer market.
China has a SURPLUS of money coming in and they are not throwing it away into Wall Street, they are using the money to actually build up industry. How do you think they have become such a manufacturing powerhouse?
Scott Bessent calls this imbalanced and unbalanced, to the most extreme degree in ALL OF HISTORY. Meanwhile, what is the US attempting to do? Build back its industry so it can be a leader in the export trade since they realise that they can no longer be top dog with the system they were previously operating on, which was controlled artificial scarcity.
China has blown that tactic out of the water because they are offering essential, crucial trade with other countries that will allow these countries to be self-empowered. Look at the entire history of colonialism, they ALWAYS wanted to prevent or put a cap on industrialisation because it was always understood that that would free regions of the world to become self-sustaining. There is no more control if you are no longer the hand that withholds.
Here is a map (to the left) of the colonial rail lines of Africa built by the colonialists of Europe between 1890 and 1960. Notice that they for the most part do not connect with each other, except in South Africa where there are many white inhabitants. These rail lines are from a resource mine to a port and were used simply for wealth extraction and not to uplift the people. I will be doing an updated detailed overview of what China’s BRI is in fact building throughout the world. However, you can refer to my paper, with the subsection “China’s Belt and Road Initiative Put Into Perspective” for something I wrote a few years back. Great resources on this are Lawrence Freeman’s website “Africa and the World” as well as Nicholas Jones’s Substack Nkrumah’s Africa both are also RTF lecturers.
This is what President Putin was referring to in a speech from 2018 to light up Africa.
This map shows how much of the world is still in great need of energy and infrastructure.
In 2019, Reuters reported that the United States’ top African diplomat warned that African countries running up debt they won’t be able to pay back, should not expect to be bailed out by western-sponsored debt relief.
“We went through, just in the last 20 years, this big debt forgiveness for a lot of African countries,” said U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Africa for African Affairs Tibor Nagy, referring to the somewhat condescendingly named HIPC (Heavily Indebted Poor Countries) program, started by the IMF and World Bank in 1996 as a nice window dressing.
“Now all of a sudden are we going to go through another cycle of that? ... I certainly would not be sympathetic, and I don’t think my administration would be sympathetic to that kind of situation,” he told reporters in Pretoria, South Africa.
Hmmm, imagine if a Chinese diplomat were to have said that, how it would have been viewed by the west, but apparently when a westerner says it, it is somehow not exploitive and predatory…
Wall Street billionaire Scott Bessent has even gone so far in interviews to say that China is not only sick and unbalanced for exporting so much, but that these massive volumes of exports must be going somewhere, but acted puzzled as to where that could possibly be. How about to where the majority of the world population lives that is in great need of this trade with China to lift their countries out of poverty Mr. Bessent.
So, there’s an incredible disconnect here. According to Bessent, China is both strong and weak at the same time. Is China an economic rival to which you need to guard against or is China crashing and no longer a threat - because you can’t have both. It looks like Americans might be still underestimating China, and their policies to contain her are already beginning to backfire.
Let’s look at the data here because it cuts through all of the BS. China’s GDP grew by 5.4% in the latest quarter. And this brings overall GDP growth for the last year to 5% even. What’s interesting is the biggest factor for the jump, 60% of the rebound is from China’s policy to boost consumption. In other words, China’s stimulus to boost internal consumption is starting to work.
And this means that the Chinese now have a playbook to fight back against the US. Even with a full-out trade war with the US, where China is effectively cut out of the US consumer market, China could wrap up the stimulus to boost domestic spending. One great example is the trading program, where people can trade their own stuff and the government subsidizes the new purchase. So, if you have an old rickety car, you can just swap it for a new Chinese electric vehicle and the Chinese government will subsidize part of the purchase. And this has reached over 1.3 trillion yuan in revenue. That’s a boost in consumer spending in $180 billion from this program alone.
Ironically, what Bessent is doing with this tariff war is giving a boost to China’s domestic market, which is going to further grow their economic influence. Just like when the Americans attempted to cut China out of the semiconductor industry, China in turn focused on self-reliance and they are now increasingly becoming leaders in the semiconductor field.
China is capable of doing this because they have a massive manufacturing capability to begin with and an incredibly complex manufacturing ecosystem in Shenzhen, which is a much more advanced and affluent city than anything in the United States, hate to burst that bubble.
If you really want to compare strength between the US and China, a better comparison is the cost of living. While its true that US salary is three to four times higher, the cost of food is much lower in China, taxes are also lower, so the standard of living is higher in China.
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Also, if Chinese consumers buy more and US consumers buy less from the world as a result of this trade war, which is to boost US domestic consumption, who has more power to influence the global economy? This is a losing strategy from Mr. Bessent and it is going to backfire on the standard of living for the average American.
But enough about China for now (more in future instalments) let us take a look at how this tariff war has affected the US economy thus far.
Are the Tariffs Creating Higher Inflation and Loss of Jobs?
Trump has said repeatedly that tariffs are a tax on a foreign country, not the American people, “it’s a tax on a country that’s ripping us off and stealing our jobs. And it’s a tax that doesn’t affect our country. And you could see hundreds of billions of dollars of tariffs on other countries also.”
The dollar’s fall this year is the steepest since 2008. It reflects weak confidence in the US economy.
US interest rates are not going down they are flying higher. And this is bad for everyone in America. People with mortgages are going to get squeezed, business and personal loans will also get repriced upwards.
Higher interest rates are bad for the stock market and economic growth. Companies can’t expand their operations, their loan payments get more expensive, as a result salaries are also put under tremendous pressure. This creates a snowball effect where people are earning less which leads to lower consumption, in the broader economy. Major banks are already sounding the alarm, rates could go much higher. This puts the US consumer under threat which makes up about 70% of GDP.
Onshoring manufacturing is going to take years to fully manifest. And people will be hit with higher prices on goods from the world. Everything coming in from Canada, Europe, Asia, the Middle East are going to be higher in price and that’s going to be very inflationary.
Back in 2015, according to a Forbes article, Walmart scrubbed the ‘Made in the USA’ labeling from its website following allegations from the nonprofit group Truth in Advertising that found more than 100 examples of items that did not adhere to that label's requirements. To use the label ‘Made in the USA,’ all of the components must be manufactured and assembled in the United States. The findings prompted the Federal Trade Commission to launch an investigation. Walmart pointed to its vendor partners and said it had relied on them to provide manufacturing information, some of which was incorrect or outdated.
This reminds me of when McDonalds’ “100% beef” written on their hamburger boxes was apparently in reference to the name of a company that made the boxes and had nothing to do with the actual content within said burgers.
In 2023, Walmart had made a pledge to source $250 billion in products over the course of ten years. The initiative is expected to create 1 million new US jobs and 250,000 in direct manufacturing and 750,000 in support and services, according to the company.
However, the reality is that Walmart has approximately 80% of its suppliers still located in China (so, yes they knew full well their products were not “Made in the USA”).
Here are some facts about Walmart published on the “Alliance for American Manufacturing” website:
- Walmart makes $34,985 in profit every minute, meaning that Walmart makes $10 million in profit approximately every five hours.
- For several years, Walmart has been the single largest U.S. importer of consumer goods, surpassing the trade volume of entire countries. According to the Journal of Commerce, Walmart remains the top U.S. importer. And has 795,900 shipping containers
- More than 100 U.S. jobs were displaced for every actual or promised job created through Walmart’s Investing in American Jobs initiative.
- In America, estimates say that Chinese suppliers make up 70-80 percent of Walmart’s merchandise, leaving less than 20 percent for American-made products.
- Walmart China [located in China] “firmly believes” in local sourcing with over 95 percent of their merchandise coming from local sources.
Ok, so before you are tempted to blame this situation on China let me go over a few things with you. As should have already been made clear, the US doesn’t really have a manufacturing industry anymore. That is why the country as whole has been importing most of its goods that US consumers are purchasing from around the world. The pressure on Walmart to source more locally within the United States and prioritise products made in the US is a good thing to do. However, it is also presently delusional since…the US is not manufacturing these products and it is going to take several months to years to meet this demand. They are not going to manifest out of thin air.
At best, the products are a combination of US and Chinese manufacturing. What that means is that US industries that still exist and are making stuff, still need to import from China certain key materials that they need to produce the final product. Again, it is a supply chain issue. The US simply does not have access to full supply chains domestically. You can’t make something entirely in America if you are missing 80% of the material required to build the product. So, the metals you need, the plastics you need etc. for manufacturing are largely coming from China. And as the Forbes article outlined, if any component of the product is not made in the USA, it does not justify the label “Made in the USA.”
But from that standard, hardly anything is “Made in the USA” and the focus on Walmart as somehow the problem here is not really being honest. Even if Walmart wanted to oblige this, they would be unable to carry the majority of their products since there are hardly any US industries, if any, that exist presently that could supply the present demand. You cannot create this capability, to entirely replace what China has been exporting, OVERNIGHT. There will be scarcity and huge price increases from this because the manufacturing base has not been built up yet and will take years.
In other words, America needed to build up at least the first foundations of a manufacturing base before starting an all out trade war with China, where we are looking at 80% of products/materials no longer entering the country before US manufacturing even had a chance to get started on rebuilding itself.
There is another complication to all of this. There are three possibilities for who will have to “eat the tariffs” in a tariff war.
This is likely not the most up-to-date account of Trump’s active tariffs since they are constantly moving chairs about on the Titanic, however, it gives you a good idea of how expansive these tariffs are which are not even incorporating the reciprocal tariffs that are presently on pause for 90 days or the 145% tariffs put on China.
The tariff can be “eaten” by either the exporter to the US, the importer to the US, or the US consumer. Bessent has stated his conviction numerous times that he is without a doubt that the exporter will eat the tariff in all cases, that is, with all countries. Because according to Bessent to cut out the US consumer from their trade would be suicide. And this is true for some very exposed countries.
Mexico and Vietnam are at the top of the list after China. In their case, the greater majority of their trade is with the United States so they are in a tough bind here. In the case of Vietnam, they have offered to remove their tariffs on US goods. However, Peter Navarro, White House advisor on economics, reportedly said no, that the condition would have to be that they forfeit all trade relations with China.
In other words, Navarro is asking for countries to pay their pound of flesh. It is effectively asking Vietnam to remove itself from the growing economic hub that is occurring in Asia right now. Who in their right mind would do that? It is effectively asking nations to commit harakiri in fealty to the American Empire.
As discussed in Part I of this series, it has now been discovered that this tariffing of the world was never about the US getting screwed by tariffs on US goods, but rather about putting a criminal level of pressure on nations to force them to cut China out of trade with the rest of the world and sign over their key industries to the US empire. And with no deals signed yet, and Japan (America’s number one fan until recently) actually walking out of the deal room, things are not looking good.
Bessent has also put pressure on Canada to match Mexico’s pitch to put tariffs on China, after Washington’s strong arming. And has even gone so far as to refer to a ‘Fortress North America’ against China. I have a feeling that with Rubio’s heavy presence in Latin America, this envisioned fortress is a lot bigger than just the north…
The US is not coming out in very flattering light here. It is becoming all too clear that the US does not value allies and friends, but is willing to suck them dry in its ambitions to be the forever hegemon. In other words, things are getting real ugly and it is occurring in full view for the whole world to see.
Walmart, as with many other businesses which I will mention shortly, knows that the exporter is likely not going to want to pay for the full amount of the tariff, if at all, as in the case of China. That means this fee, you can call it a tax, falls onto either the importer (Walmart in this case) or the US consumer to pay, or a sharing between the two of the extra cost.
By the way, this is a situation that should not be occurring if these tariffs were applied properly as protective tariffs. It completely defeats the purpose of putting a tariff on an imported good, if the end result is that businesses and US consumers have no choice but to pay higher prices for said good, since there isn’t an actual US product to even choose from in many of these cases. So the only option is to not purchase the good, or pay a much higher price for this good. What do you think this is going to do to small businesses and the US consumer? Small businesses already have higher prices typically, since they are not as streamlined and their profit margins are smaller, so they are going to go belly-up. And US consumers will either have to forego access to many goods now with these tariffs, or they will have to pay even higher prices, which is inflationary, making them even poorer.
Note that Walmart is the word’s largest retailer and has come to be relied upon by the majority of US consumers for their food products and other essentials. So how Walmart decides to proceed from this is going to show us how businesses are going to fair in the best case scenario, because if Walmart can’t get a good deal out of this, it is pretty much guaranteed that no retail business is going to be getting a good deal out of this tariff war.
In the case of Walmart, they were attempting to get Chinese suppliers to absorb the cost, I mean you don’t become the richest family in the world by offering to pay for things right? Even after a massive tax break from Trump…
In Singapore’s Morningstar article, dated March 12, 2025, “China Summons Walmart for Talks as Suppliers Complain Over Tariffs”:
‘Authorities including China's commerce ministry met with Walmart on Tuesday over what they said was the retail giant's request to get some of its Chinese suppliers to significantly cut prices "in an attempt to shift the burden of U.S. tariffs to Chinese suppliers and consumers," according to a post on Wednesday by a social media account affiliated with China's state broadcaster.
… According to the social media account, Walmart reportedly asking Chinese suppliers to lower prices may risk disrupting supply chains and damaging the interests of both American and Chinese companies and consumers. The behavior may also violate commercial contracts and disrupt market order, it added.
"If Walmart insists on doing so, then what awaits Walmart is not just talk," the social media account warned, hinting that the American retail giant might be facing regulatory action.
In a statement Wednesday, the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Textiles, a state-backed industry group, said that it had recently received reports from some members saying that large U.S. retailers had asked them to cut prices, pledging to take action to defend Chinese companies' interests.
"The various problems in international trade at present are caused by the unilateral imposition of tariffs by the U.S. government, and both Chinese and American companies are victims," it said. [recall this was written on March 12.]
Wednesday's announcement comes amid expectations that U.S. companies will get caught in the crossfire as U.S.-China trade tensions escalate.’
Walmart apparently thought it was too important for China to forsake and continued putting pressure on Chinese suppliers to “eat the tariffs” and take the full brunt of the tariff war, in Bloomberg News’ article “Walmart Keeps Price Pressure on Suppliers After Beijing Pushback.” As has already been made clear earlier on, China will not be the first to back down from this, and Walmart needs to now think fast on its feet or it is facing empty shelves in a few months time if not sooner.
When Beijing raised their tariff to 125% this effectively blocked out all US exports into China. That’s around $150 billion worth of revenue vanishing into thin air. American companies take another hit. US is crushing their own domestic demand with their 145% tariff to China and their corporate revenue is hammered by China’s 125% retaliatory tariff.
Ironically, the US’s attempt to box-China-in has ended up with them boxing in themselves and they have only their own actions to thank for this.
China has secured their global supply chains and has the global majority as trading partners. In other words, unlike countries like Canada, Mexico and Vietnam, China didn’t just rely on US trade, it saw where the wind was blowing and began diversifying its trade back in 2018. So, they are able to take this hit. Whereas countries who have failed to diversify, such as Mexico and Canada and are at the mercy of the US as the primary trading partner. This is the lesson that the entire world is looking at right now, the US is not a reliable trade partner.
But the Trump team appears to have not realised that this trade war is a double-edged sword.
So looks like prices for US consumers are going to rise after all Mr. Bessent.
In face of the clear rising prices that will be occurring as a direct result of this tariff war (on top of the pre-existing inflation and high interest rates) companies like Stellantis are offering to help suppliers to pay the tariff costs. In other words, Stellantis is offering to share the cost of the tariff with the exporter country. However, this is considered a temporary arrangement so that supply chains are not too heavily disrupted, over the next few months. It is unclear how long companies like Stellantis can withstand the additional price increases without raising prices for the US consumer.
Just the mass exodus from Canada and Mexico of the auto-industry back to the United States, as well as the tariffs on steel from Canada and Japan are going to dramatically raise prices for cars, squeezing the auto-industries’ profit margins, reducing profits and in turn forcing them to lay-off workers.
So, workers are going to be losing jobs in the manufacturing sector. The manufacturing of EV (electric vehicle) cars are either not going to be possible with China’s ban on critical minerals and metals (needed for chip manufacturing) or they are going to be crazy expensive, such that very few people in the US could afford such a thing. It doesn’t help that Biden put the Chinese EV battery CATL on a blacklist, which was by far the most affordable battery which is about half the total cost of manufacturing an EV.
The chart below gives you an idea of how much China alone supports US jobs in manufacturing through US exports to China which are now lost, likely forever. With the top exporter states being Texas, California, Louisiana, Indiana and Illinois etc. whose manufacturing industries are now left totally in the lurch over this trade war and are likely not going to be able to sustain their industries at this point.
But don’t worry guys. Trump says the tariffs aren’t going to hurt business in America…that is if you are “big business.” Why? Because big business already got massive tax cuts guys. You the American people are going to be footing the bill for their loss in profits over this tariff war.
Trump is transferring wealth from private households all the way up to the federal government to spend through this tariff war on the world.
Trump has mused to the bottom third of America that he could possibly consider dropping taxes for this group which is just eeking by at this point. However, in reality, his tariffs on the world are taxing the bottom third of the American population the hardest.
Meanwhile small businesses who can’t survive a weeks-to-months long siege are already going belly-up in the cause for “Making America Great Again.” If Walmart is going through a hard time trying to find affordable products to fill their shelves during this trade war with China, imagine the effect on small businesses who cannot afford to pay more for their products or materials, let alone to flesh out new supply chains in a matter of weeks.
Plenty of American businesses are going to be destroyed by these tariff strategy. And these are small enterprises that rely on the Chinese supply chain for affordable manufacturing. We could see massive unemployment and entire local economies collapsing.
Ironically, Bessent’s tariff strategy will deindustrialise America faster than ever before. Bringing plants back to the US only makes sense if the domestic consumption base is strong. Is there business to be had in the United States going forward?
And if you think the lockdowns were brutal on small businesses, wait and see what kind of carnage we are in for as a consequence of this trade war.
Bessent’s weaponised tariffs are inflationary for US consumers, they are raising prices for American consumers and lowering their standard of living and if this continues long enough, US consumption will collapse and the economy will nose dive.
Bessent said in his interview with Tucker Carlson:
“Well, I don’t know if they [China] can retaliate for a couple of reasons. If you look at the history, and I used to teach economic history, and when you look at the history, we are the debtor nation, we have the trade deficits. The surplus nation is in the weaker position because the Chinese business model and the economy are the most unbalanced, imbalanced in the history of the modern world. We’ve never seen anything like this in terms of their export level relative to their GDP, relative to their population. They’re in a deflationary recession/depression right now. They’re trying to export their way out of it and we can’t let them do that.”
Again Bessent is talking about China as some sort of deranged Frankenstein, an exporter monster, and it is up to America to save the world from Chinese….affordable and high quality goods?!?
Bessent continues: “And this is the first step towards realigning that a lot of our trading partners, including some of our allies, have not been good partners. If tariffs are so bad, why do they have them? Or, if the American consumer is going to pay all the tariff then why do they care about tariffs. Right, because they [the exporter] are going to eat them.
…
So this is a national security issue that we’re seeing here but it’s also an economic security issue and it’s to, I don’t want to say redistribute, but it is to give working Americans real wage gains and enhance their lives…Wall Street’s done great, it can continue doing well, it’s Main Street’s turn….and that is what we saw yesterday, it’s Main Street’s turn.”
Yesterday (from that interview) when there was a particularly bad day in the US stock market where many Americans lost their life savings. That was apparently Main Street’s turn….
For all of Bessent’s insistence that it is “Main Street’s turn” we can now see that prices are indeed increasing, manufacturing companies are not going to be able to sustain the squeeze in profit margins for too long, unless you are one of Trump’s favourite children and are considered “big business.”
There will be a massive loss of jobs in the millions from the drop in foreign investment, in foreign employment, and foreign trade. Borrowing will be more costly in a higher interest-rate environment. Things are going to be more expensive or impossible to manufacture, with tariffs or trade bans on essential materials required to finish these manufactured goods.
Again, supply chains cannot be created overnight, this is going to take years. During this time more jobs will be lost and more small businesses will go belly-up.
As part of a means to quell the gathering mob with torches and pitchforks, the Trump team mulls over exporter tax credit as a tariff counterweight.
This is as asinine as it gets folks.
Trump and friends are considering giving US companies exporter tax credits to counter-foreign retaliation. So, if Europe decides to slap an import tax, US exporters will eat some of the tariff and get US government subsidies. This is funny and sad at the same time, especially when the US keeps scolding the world for subsidizing their exports. Trump is now willing to do the same for his own companies. But think about how ridiculous this is. Trump wants to collect tariffs from US consumers and use it to subsidize US companies for retaliatory tariffs they are being charged on their exports.
At this point I have lost count of all the multiple angles that the US consumer is expected to foot the bill from this brilliant plan to “Make America Great Again.” Maybe the tactic all along was that America would be made great by strangling the bottom half of its population and removing the “deadweight”?
And as of April 16th, the latest tariffs have generated about $500 million…despite Trump claiming that the US is raking $2 billion per day from these tariffs.
Yeesh, this is bad guys. Much worse than the US reporting a 2.8% growth in “real” GDP at the cost of a 6.7% GDP deficit, where every $1 spent gave 50 cents in return.
It looks here like this $500 million in extra “revenue” has cost much more in terms of the financial loss in the stock and bond markets, the loss in foreign investment, the loss in jobs and small businesses, the loss in US manufacturers who rely on their export market to China, and the loss in materials needed by US manufacturers to finish their products.
The CNBC article writes even if this rate in tariff revenue “continues unabated, this would only earn $90 billion a year. It is a drop in the ocean when the US [trade] deficit will come in at $1.9 trillion in 2025.”
And the way things are going, we could be looking at certain stores with aisles of empty shelves like what occurred during the lockdown.
Yahoo Finance writes “President Donald Trump’s tariff policies have US companies putting the brakes on imports for the time being. According to Reuters, citing data from container tracking software company Vizion, between the weeks of March 24-31 and April 1-8, US bookings on massive container ships dropped by 64%.”
A ton of goods bound for the US have simply been cancelled. Many of those goods were bound for small businesses and their business models are now forever broken. If you are broke and the future is uncertain the last thing you will do is reinvest back in.
US job openings have decreased by 290,000 in one month. 7.48 million down to 7.19 million according to monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics published on April 29th, 2025.
But Bessent continues to state it is not up to the US to de-escalate but China, despite the fact that it was the US that started this whole thing.
No pain, no gain right? Maybe if you live on Wall Street, but this is looking like the end of Main Street.
And it is official Mr. Bessent, despite all of your gaslighting that this was unlikely, the US will be entering into a recession this year…
…but I guess this is all according to the plan? After all, we are the good guys…right?
You can now read Part III here.
(As already mentioned in Part I, this series is not meant to blackpill the reader, however, we do need to confront the reality of the situation. In following instalments a solution orientation will be discussed.)
Cynthia Chung is the President of the Rising Tide Foundation and author of the books “The Shaping of a World Religion” & “The Empire on Which the Black Sun Never Set,” consider supporting her work by making a donation and subscribing to her substack page Through A Glass Darkly.
Also watch for free our RTF Docu-Series “Escaping Calypso’s Island: A Journey Out of Our Green Delusion” and our CP Docu-Series “The Hidden Hand Behind UFOs”.
Part 3 is now published, apologies for the delay. The title is "The Difference Between William McKinley’s American System School of Protective Tariffs and Today" and you can read it here: https://cynthiachung.substack.com/p/the-difference-between-william-mckinleys
Thank you for this Exposure!