Why the United States Has Set Itself Up for Failure in the Semiconductor Race for Military Supremacy
cynthiachung.substack.com
Doomsday prophesising of how China’s days are numbered and that it is in the midst of an economic collapse could not be any further from reality. The reasons for the spread of this sort of gossip is to keep up the belief (and thus investment) in the idea that the United States is secure in its alpha dog global status and that the world is better off siding with said alpha in its escalating and reckless, not to mention unnecessary, economic and geopolitical war against Russia and China. It is to intimidate any country foolish enough to throw too many of its eggs into the Russia-China basket with the thought that they will be left hanging in the wind once China collapses from the international stranglehold on its economy, which is touted as inevitable.
Thank you Cynthia - great insight and understanding. I try to keep my "Reality Goggles" clean, focused, and calibrated. Striving to see truthfulness. But the signal-to-noise ratio is a challenge with all the gas-lighting, narratives, gate keepers, algorithms, and B.S. Your piece breaks through all the "noise."
So clear, easily read article with the research one ought to find as the norm in journalism. Its a delight to see in how many ways the US Military Junta Industrial complex is so dumb and ill adaptive to the age we live in. An social extinction event for all of us with this military attitude or simply its mindset.
Its hard to imagine anyone who thinks will want to suffer through with their program to achieve a modern prosperity. Wonderful history lesson about how the junta shoots itself in the head repeatedly and how in this day and age we see it !
Very good explanation of what’s taking place in the microchips industry. It also explains some of why U. S. politicians have decided to show public displays of support for Taiwan in recent months. Thanks for the insightful article!
I was here a while ago regarding your essay on the history of China and received wonderful insight and resources as an American who did not know alot of this stuff. Once more, you have done great work here. I truly appreciate your dedication to details. Very good essay here. I definitely have to purchase some books from you and Ehret and get some more reading in.
As you say; one of the largest customers for Chinese Microchip Products is the American "Merchants of Death" and the Pentagon. The only reason China doesn`t cut off America from it`s chips ,is American Tyranny of the World`s Financial Banking System. On paper, America is $27 Trillion in Debt.
Who to ? Mostly the Federal Reserve; who, are the Mythical "Deep State". The Fed will never try to collect the $27 Trillion, because it owns Wall Street , Congress and America`s Financial Muscle.
On the bright side, anything that slows down the US semi-conductor industry also slows down implementation of the Total Surveillance State which is already in place in China.
I find the notion that the CCP has the best interests of the Chinese people at heart to be naive. Of course they want you to believe that, but the reality is they have over a billion mouths to feed in a nation with limited energy, raw materials and productive land, a good portion of which is seriously contaminated from all the great leaps forward made at the expense of their environment.
When people go hungry that's the end of the CCP. Their concern is not so much for the people as it is for maintaining power over them, but even if they can meet the basic needs it's still a dead-end because the more you suppress freedom of speech and basic human rights, the less inclined people are to work for you, and they start "lying flat" just as they did in the USSR.
China to me looks more like a Potemkin Village than an advanced society. Entire "ghost cities" sit empty and crumbling because they couldn't think of a better way to employ people. World's largest standing army, but for what? Defence, or just to keep young men out of trouble that can't find wives and start families? Speaking of which, take a look at the matrimonial ads in their newspapers and online dating services. The average guy would be 50 by the time he has enough wealth and job security to satisfy those women's expectations. No wonder they lie flat.
You want to see the real China, take a trip to the countryside where half the people still live. Don't venture too far in though or the police will stop you and turn you around after deleting any photos you may have on your phone. They don't want the outside world to see what it's really like. They want you to focus on the bright shiny objects along the coast, not the shabby rat infested villages of the interior where half the population still lives.
China will muddle through thanks to Russia which supplies energy, raw materials, food, and a replacement market for their western sanctioned exports. They'll do OK refining Russian oil and selling it to Europe, until Europe can no longer afford to pay, but that's all they've got as far as future prospects are concerned.
Don't get me wrong, I like Chinese people and have lived and worked with them in Canada for many years, but you have to ask yourself, if China's such a great place to be, why do so many of them want to leave?
according to recent reports, TSMC is being swindled by Uncle Sam. all contracts, perks, benefits are being given to Intel. Uncle Sam clearly does not trust TSMC or Taiwanese. but the Taiwanese don't seem to realize this.. prostrating themselves to Americans.
As always, Cynthia, such a impeccable review and analysis. Once again,you have illustrated for us yet another major example of how myopic, treacherous and doomed U.S. leadership continues to act on the world stage, and how misled such a great number of Americans are about what's going on at home. They are sidetracked into mistakenly blaming and fearing China at every turn. I think such expose really helps people understand this and that will help bring on the positive change for the better that is brewing.
When I ran for Congress (1996) one of my primary planks was to stop the export of jobs and factories to China. Certainly everyone wishes they had listened to my advice some 27 years later. So basically our corporations and legislators sold us out to China. Now we are in peril. Washington, in his farewell address, counseled WE THE PEOPLE, to avoid foreign entanglements. Obviously our corporations and legislators ignored the advice.
It is also very concerning that Russia, and the rest of the world are now silently rolling out a digital currency (CBDC). Even a secularist, such as myself, can see this as the "Mark of the Beast." Early literalist religions -- Islam, Christianity, Judaism -- pushed the idea the "god is watching" in order to control the masses. Today the global surveillance state is actually watching all that we do.
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We see the Russian rouble stronger than it has ever been in large part due to the competent leadership of Sergei Glazyev (see his speech on Sanctions and Sovereignty) who is in the process of organising a “new economic order…[which] will involve a creation of a new digital payment currency founded through an international agreement based on principles of transparency, fairness, goodwill, and efficiency” as he explained in an interview with Pepe Escobar for The Cradle.
=====
I wrote, at length against the adoption of digital currency as few essays back. Thankfully humans, throughout the planet, now see the problem. But our globalist governments seem intent on adopting it anyway. We are in need of a peaceful anti-globalist revolution.
The Global Quickening: The Escalating Clusterfuck of humanity by the Globalists
Why our primary goal must be a worldwide movement against Digital Currency
2023.02.22 - Intel (INTC) cut its dividend by 66% after analysts' estimates showed the chip maker was expected to run negative cash flow for the next tow full years. At a time when Intel was laying off employees to cut costs, paying $6 billion a year in dividends didn't appear viable (ya think?).
I guess your article was written before the most recent round of ‘sanctions’, which by most accounts even across into some areas of general reading matter, will only hasten the demise of US and further the rise of the China industry sectors
As for TSMC in Arizona the company leader has raised plenty of problems about the lack of skilled workers, and alos, I believe, lack of water – which is also a problem for the company in Taiwan
Thank you for this article! After 2 years of "fog" i now understand the "Global chip shortage"! US news simply refuses to properly educate US peoples no matter how educated or persistent the news consumers are! They specialize in lies, spin, and brain fog! It's really shameful.
BTW, i don't doubt SMIC will eventually hit 7nm/5nm, but claims at present remain unverified. And terms like 5nm or 7nm have become marketing terms un-related to actual dennard scaling pitch sizes on the semiconductor (Big Shock to most readers, i know, but truth in EE departments of Universities). The nanometer readings are "marketing department" products nowadays, having decoupled from actual measurements since 1997 (Big Shock, i know). Truth be told, if someone can tear the top off a SMIC IC die, and use CCD camera verification of transistor density, and if that density comes to ~90MTr/mm2 (million transistors per square millimeter) or higher, then SMIC can truly be said to have made the 7nm or 5nm node.
Thank you Cynthia - great insight and understanding. I try to keep my "Reality Goggles" clean, focused, and calibrated. Striving to see truthfulness. But the signal-to-noise ratio is a challenge with all the gas-lighting, narratives, gate keepers, algorithms, and B.S. Your piece breaks through all the "noise."
So clear, easily read article with the research one ought to find as the norm in journalism. Its a delight to see in how many ways the US Military Junta Industrial complex is so dumb and ill adaptive to the age we live in. An social extinction event for all of us with this military attitude or simply its mindset.
Its hard to imagine anyone who thinks will want to suffer through with their program to achieve a modern prosperity. Wonderful history lesson about how the junta shoots itself in the head repeatedly and how in this day and age we see it !
Very good explanation of what’s taking place in the microchips industry. It also explains some of why U. S. politicians have decided to show public displays of support for Taiwan in recent months. Thanks for the insightful article!
I was here a while ago regarding your essay on the history of China and received wonderful insight and resources as an American who did not know alot of this stuff. Once more, you have done great work here. I truly appreciate your dedication to details. Very good essay here. I definitely have to purchase some books from you and Ehret and get some more reading in.
Great summary. Many thanks!!
As you say; one of the largest customers for Chinese Microchip Products is the American "Merchants of Death" and the Pentagon. The only reason China doesn`t cut off America from it`s chips ,is American Tyranny of the World`s Financial Banking System. On paper, America is $27 Trillion in Debt.
Who to ? Mostly the Federal Reserve; who, are the Mythical "Deep State". The Fed will never try to collect the $27 Trillion, because it owns Wall Street , Congress and America`s Financial Muscle.
On the bright side, anything that slows down the US semi-conductor industry also slows down implementation of the Total Surveillance State which is already in place in China.
I find the notion that the CCP has the best interests of the Chinese people at heart to be naive. Of course they want you to believe that, but the reality is they have over a billion mouths to feed in a nation with limited energy, raw materials and productive land, a good portion of which is seriously contaminated from all the great leaps forward made at the expense of their environment.
When people go hungry that's the end of the CCP. Their concern is not so much for the people as it is for maintaining power over them, but even if they can meet the basic needs it's still a dead-end because the more you suppress freedom of speech and basic human rights, the less inclined people are to work for you, and they start "lying flat" just as they did in the USSR.
China to me looks more like a Potemkin Village than an advanced society. Entire "ghost cities" sit empty and crumbling because they couldn't think of a better way to employ people. World's largest standing army, but for what? Defence, or just to keep young men out of trouble that can't find wives and start families? Speaking of which, take a look at the matrimonial ads in their newspapers and online dating services. The average guy would be 50 by the time he has enough wealth and job security to satisfy those women's expectations. No wonder they lie flat.
You want to see the real China, take a trip to the countryside where half the people still live. Don't venture too far in though or the police will stop you and turn you around after deleting any photos you may have on your phone. They don't want the outside world to see what it's really like. They want you to focus on the bright shiny objects along the coast, not the shabby rat infested villages of the interior where half the population still lives.
China will muddle through thanks to Russia which supplies energy, raw materials, food, and a replacement market for their western sanctioned exports. They'll do OK refining Russian oil and selling it to Europe, until Europe can no longer afford to pay, but that's all they've got as far as future prospects are concerned.
Don't get me wrong, I like Chinese people and have lived and worked with them in Canada for many years, but you have to ask yourself, if China's such a great place to be, why do so many of them want to leave?
Great article, Cynthia.
according to recent reports, TSMC is being swindled by Uncle Sam. all contracts, perks, benefits are being given to Intel. Uncle Sam clearly does not trust TSMC or Taiwanese. but the Taiwanese don't seem to realize this.. prostrating themselves to Americans.
FYI: Kioxia of Japan, developed a new process which can reach 5nm without EUV lithography machines. https://inf.news/en/digital/ffba5eefb39b8dbfeb3a08660089c5a7.html
As always, Cynthia, such a impeccable review and analysis. Once again,you have illustrated for us yet another major example of how myopic, treacherous and doomed U.S. leadership continues to act on the world stage, and how misled such a great number of Americans are about what's going on at home. They are sidetracked into mistakenly blaming and fearing China at every turn. I think such expose really helps people understand this and that will help bring on the positive change for the better that is brewing.
Great essay as always!
When I ran for Congress (1996) one of my primary planks was to stop the export of jobs and factories to China. Certainly everyone wishes they had listened to my advice some 27 years later. So basically our corporations and legislators sold us out to China. Now we are in peril. Washington, in his farewell address, counseled WE THE PEOPLE, to avoid foreign entanglements. Obviously our corporations and legislators ignored the advice.
It is also very concerning that Russia, and the rest of the world are now silently rolling out a digital currency (CBDC). Even a secularist, such as myself, can see this as the "Mark of the Beast." Early literalist religions -- Islam, Christianity, Judaism -- pushed the idea the "god is watching" in order to control the masses. Today the global surveillance state is actually watching all that we do.
=====
We see the Russian rouble stronger than it has ever been in large part due to the competent leadership of Sergei Glazyev (see his speech on Sanctions and Sovereignty) who is in the process of organising a “new economic order…[which] will involve a creation of a new digital payment currency founded through an international agreement based on principles of transparency, fairness, goodwill, and efficiency” as he explained in an interview with Pepe Escobar for The Cradle.
=====
I wrote, at length against the adoption of digital currency as few essays back. Thankfully humans, throughout the planet, now see the problem. But our globalist governments seem intent on adopting it anyway. We are in need of a peaceful anti-globalist revolution.
The Global Quickening: The Escalating Clusterfuck of humanity by the Globalists
Why our primary goal must be a worldwide movement against Digital Currency
https://brucecain.substack.com/p/the-global-quickening-the-escalating
2023.02.22 - Intel (INTC) cut its dividend by 66% after analysts' estimates showed the chip maker was expected to run negative cash flow for the next tow full years. At a time when Intel was laying off employees to cut costs, paying $6 billion a year in dividends didn't appear viable (ya think?).
Thank you for this article – a revelation of well written information and clear headed analysis
You say « « there may even be a new form of technology to replace the entire present way of doing things. « «
Do you refer to photonics ? This report - https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202210/1277405.shtml
I guess your article was written before the most recent round of ‘sanctions’, which by most accounts even across into some areas of general reading matter, will only hasten the demise of US and further the rise of the China industry sectors
A recent article in Asia Times plays up foolishness of US sanctions- https://asiatimes.com/2022/10/china-chip-ban-a-us-exercise-in-extreme-self-harm/- as has been seen in the RF sanctions
As for TSMC in Arizona the company leader has raised plenty of problems about the lack of skilled workers, and alos, I believe, lack of water – which is also a problem for the company in Taiwan
Once again thank you for the overview
Thank you for this article! After 2 years of "fog" i now understand the "Global chip shortage"! US news simply refuses to properly educate US peoples no matter how educated or persistent the news consumers are! They specialize in lies, spin, and brain fog! It's really shameful.
BTW, i don't doubt SMIC will eventually hit 7nm/5nm, but claims at present remain unverified. And terms like 5nm or 7nm have become marketing terms un-related to actual dennard scaling pitch sizes on the semiconductor (Big Shock to most readers, i know, but truth in EE departments of Universities). The nanometer readings are "marketing department" products nowadays, having decoupled from actual measurements since 1997 (Big Shock, i know). Truth be told, if someone can tear the top off a SMIC IC die, and use CCD camera verification of transistor density, and if that density comes to ~90MTr/mm2 (million transistors per square millimeter) or higher, then SMIC can truly be said to have made the 7nm or 5nm node.
How do you think the Zero-Covid Lockdown Policy in China will affect its ability to export goods or import raw materials?